The closure of major Afghanistan-Pakistan border crossings has now extended beyond one year, with no indication of imminent reopening, and the logistics and trade consequences are deepening across both countries. The Torkham crossing was shut on 12 October 2025 following deadly clashes between Pakistani and Afghan forces, and other key gateways including Chaman, Kharlachi, Ghulam Khan, and Angoor Adda have also remained closed to commercial traffic . The prolonged shutdown has severed a longstanding commercial corridor that connected Afghan businesses to Karachi's seaports and provided Pakistani exporters with access to Afghan markets.
The scale of the trade collapse is stark. According to Pakistan's Trade Development Authority, bilateral trade between the two countries fell from USD 1.3 billion in FY2024-25 to approximately USD 358 million in FY2025-26, a decline of about 74% . Afghan transit trade through Pakistan has been hit even harder: the number of transit containers fell from nearly 89,000 valued at about USD 5 billion before the Taliban's return to power to just 11,592 containers worth USD 367 million in FY2025-26 . The value of Afghan exports transshipped through Pakistan to third countries collapsed from USD 454 million in FY2024-25 to just USD 7 million in the following year .
The cost escalation for cargo movement has been dramatic. Khan Jan Alokozay, head of the Afghanistan-Pakistan Joint Chamber of Commerce, stated that transporting a container from Karachi to Afghanistan previously cost about USD 2,000 and took around 10 days. Now, using alternative routes, the same container can cost up to USD 10,000 and take up to two months to reach its destination . This fivefold increase in cost and sixfold increase in transit time has fundamentally altered the economics of Afghanistan's import trade, squeezing margins for traders and raising prices for consumers.
The burden has fallen disproportionately on perishable goods and agricultural producers. Afghanistan's exports of fresh and dried fruit—including grapes, pomegranates, and raisins—have been severely disrupted, with some products now shipped to India by air while smaller quantities move through Iran and Central Asia . Alokozay noted that farmers and orchard owners have suffered the greatest losses, as their access to export markets has been restricted and the transport of fast-perishing products has become increasingly difficult . On the Pakistani side, exports of cement, medicines, flour, rice, and other goods to Afghanistan have been damaged, with the pharmaceutical sector losing a market worth approximately USD 130 million annually .
Employment losses have been widespread on both sides of the border. Shahid Hussain, a former head of the joint chamber in Peshawar, said hundreds of thousands of people have lost their jobs over the past year, including daily-wage workers, truck drivers, transport company employees, and customs agents . The tribal region economies and parts of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan, which depended heavily on border crossing activity, have experienced unprecedented stagnation. A transporter identified as Azeemullah told Dawn he was forced to sell three of his five trucks because the prolonged closure made it economically unviable to redirect them elsewhere in Pakistan .
Afghanistan has increasingly redirected its imports through Iran and Central Asia, but these alternatives carry their own constraints. World Bank data cited in multiple reports indicates that 48% of Afghanistan's imports now flow through Central Asian routes and 46% through Iran, with Pakistan's share reduced to nearly zero . Iran has become Afghanistan's largest trading partner, supplying 31.4% of its imports, with Chabahar port playing a key role . However, these alternative corridors face infrastructure limitations, higher costs, and vulnerability to regional tensions and financial restrictions. The Hairatan border crossing with Uzbekistan handled 985,000 tons of imports in Q3 2025, up 62% from the previous quarter, but insufficient railway capacity and limited cold-storage facilities constrain its ability to absorb diverted volumes .
The closure has also affected international shipping lines serving the region. Taiwan's Wan Hai Lines stopped accepting bookings for cargo bound for Afghanistan, Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, and other Central Asian countries through Pakistani ports, with the advisory explicitly covering transit arrangements made by shippers or third parties themselves . CMA CGM Pakistan advised customers not to plan new Afghan and CIS transit bookings, citing thousands of containers stranded at terminals. The carrier restrictions reflect the broader uncertainty facing logistics operators who can no longer rely on Pakistani ports as a transit gateway for Afghan and Central Asian cargo.
Prospects for reopening remain uncertain. Traders on both sides have raised concerns with officials in their respective countries but report little indication that the crossings will reopen soon . Pakistan has demanded that Taliban authorities take concrete, verifiable action against armed groups it says operate from Afghan territory, while Taliban authorities reject allegations that Afghanistan's soil is being used to launch attacks . The border closure, originally a response to specific security incidents, has evolved into a structural disruption with lasting consequences for regional trade patterns. For the logistics sector, the Afghanistan-Pakistan corridor's prolonged closure underscores how geopolitical tensions can permanently reshape supply chains, redirecting cargo flows toward costlier and less efficient alternatives that may persist long after the original dispute is resolved.