The narrative that ocean shipping disruption would automatically translate into a windfall for air cargo has proven more complicated than initially assumed. Speaking at TIACA's Air Cargo Forum in Miami in late October, DSV's head of global airfreight Achim Martinka poured cold water on the idea of a mass modal shift, noting that most customers remain on the seafreight side because the financial calculus of switching is prohibitive. "If you have two or three weeks' delay, this is a normal thing. And if you would switch to airfreight, it could be up to 20 times more expensive," he said, describing the decision as "a very tough financial decision to take".
The data tells a nuanced story. IATA reported that global air cargo demand rose 7.7% year-on-year in September 2026, with growth across all regions. Asia-Pacific carriers saw 8.6% growth, while North American carriers posted the strongest performance at 11.8%. Middle Eastern carriers recorded the weakest growth at 3.8%, reflecting the regional disruption's dual effect of creating demand while suppressing overall Gulf lane volumes. For the year through September, demand has consistently outpaced capacity, with load factors remaining elevated.
Yet the conversion from ocean to air remains selective rather than systemic. DSV's Martinka noted that conversion volumes are "still not in huge numbers," and that shippers who wait too long before seeking air alternatives find capacity prohibitively expensive because forwarders have already locked in contracts six to twelve months ahead. Atlas Air's Martin Drew confirmed that forwarders and shippers are increasingly seeking dedicated capacity with lengthy contract durations, and that Atlas has a pipeline of business "tens of aircraft" deep that it cannot currently service.
The practical obstacles to modal switching are also more substantial than often acknowledged. Emir Pineda of Miami-Dade Aviation described an attempt to move Honduran okra by sea-air via Miami and Amsterdam that succeeded only once due to the complexity of maintaining cool chains, securing capacity on short notice, and rebuilding cargo for aircraft dimensions. "That doesn't work for forwarders; they want consistency," Pineda said. Martinka added that ocean shipments require new documentation, dangerous goods checks, and operational preparation before they can be flown, creating friction that discourages all but the most urgent conversions.
Where air cargo is growing, it is driven by structural factors rather than emergency diversions. IATA's September data highlighted AI-related shipments driving double-digit growth across the Pacific, alongside strong global trade and manufacturing activity. Jet fuel prices, however, have more than doubled year-on-year, squeezing yields. "There is no shortage of goods to ship, but doing that profitably in the face of persistently high fuel prices has become more challenging," said IATA's Marie Owens Thomsen.
The new Hefei–Navi Mumbai route, launched on November 3, exemplifies this targeted growth. The service, operating 4–5 times weekly with 53 tons of capacity per flight, focuses on high-value electronics, circuit boards, and textiles—commodities where air freight's speed premium is justified by product value and time sensitivity rather than by ocean disruption alone. The route marks Hefei's first direct air freight connection to South Asia, serving Anhui province exporters who previously routed cargo through Shanghai or Hong Kong.
For India, the broader air cargo picture remains robust. Emirates SkyCargo reported transporting over 153,000 tonnes of Indian exports in FY2025/26, with pharmaceuticals, perishables, and high-tech electronics among the major commodities. The carrier added freighter services to Bengaluru, Chennai, and Hyderabad, bringing its weekly freighter flights to India to seven, complementing 167 weekly passenger flights. An estimated 2.2 million tonnes of international cargo move through Indian airports annually, and the growth in dedicated freighter capacity signals sustained confidence in India's export trajectory.
The outlook for air cargo entering 2027 hinges on whether ocean reliability improves. If the Strait of Hormuz reopens and Red Sea security stabilizes, some of the urgent cargo currently moving by air could revert to sea. But as Rotate's Ryan Keyrouse noted earlier in the year, the industry has already recorded 26 consecutive months of year-on-year growth, and US sales have outstripped inventory levels in seven of eight months—a historically reliable indicator of continued air cargo demand. The modal shift may be limited, but the structural drivers of air freight growth remain intact.