Global air cargo spot rates continued their sharp ascent in the second half of October, with WorldACD data for week 43 (October 19–25) showing a 5% week-over-week increase to an average of $3.80 per kilogram. This follows a 4% rise in week 42 and brings spot rates to 38% above the same period last year . The full-market rate, blending spot and contract prices, reached $3.33 per kilogram, up 3% week-over-week and 31% year-over-year .
The rate increases were broad-based across origin regions. Europe led with a 7% week-over-week gain, followed by Asia Pacific at 6% and Central & South America at 5% . On key trade lanes, Asia Pacific to the United States rates stood at $7.43 per kilogram, up 41% year-over-year, while Asia Pacific to Europe averaged $5.10 per kilogram . These figures reflect sustained pressure on transcontinental capacity rather than a demand-driven surge alone.
The critical supply-side constraint remains the Middle East. Capacity from the MESA region in week 43 was down 13% compared with late February (week 7), just before the start of the US-Israel war against Iran. Capacity from the Arabian Gulf specifically was down 19% over the same period . Riyadh was almost completely closed to international flights during week 43, compounding the regional shortfall .
Volumes told a more nuanced story. Worldwide tonnages dropped 2% week-over-week, with most major regions recording declines of 1–2%. The MESA region recorded a sharper 6% week-over-week drop, driven chiefly by reductions from India and Sri Lanka linked to national holidays . Compared with last year, global volumes in week 43 were still up 2%, indicating that the rate escalation is primarily capacity-driven rather than demand-led.
Global air cargo capacity dipped 1% week-over-week in week 43, including a 1% drop from Asia Pacific origins largely due to a typhoon that disrupted flights in Taiwan. However, worldwide capacity was slightly up 1% compared with the equivalent week last year, mainly thanks to increases in freighter services . The structural constraint from the Middle East disruption, however, continues to dominate the market's effective capacity picture.
The timing of the rate surge coincides with the traditional fourth-quarter peak season. With Diwali, Thanksgiving, Black Friday, and Christmas approaching, air cargo stakeholders face a busy but uncertain period. The sustained high rates are likely to increase further in the coming weeks, according to WorldACD, as seasonal demand meets constrained capacity on key corridors . Shippers dependent on MESA-origin lanes face the most acute exposure.
For India and South Asia specifically, the capacity picture remains challenging. While the holiday-related volume dip in week 43 was temporary, the underlying constraint from reduced Gulf hub connectivity persists. India-origin cargo has been a significant contributor to MESA volumes, and any prolonged capacity shortage on this corridor will continue to elevate costs for exports of pharmaceuticals, perishables, electronics, and engineering goods that rely on air freight for time-sensitive deliveries. The convergence of geopolitical disruption and seasonal peak demand leaves the market vulnerable to further rate escalation through November and December.