Saudi Aramco has moved aggressively to rebuild its Asian buyer base after months of disruption, resuming spot sales to Chinese, Indian, and Taiwanese refiners for November delivery and offering discounts that reflect a fundamental shift in the physical market . According to Reuters, Aramco has sold at least 12 million barrels to Chinese buyers through spot tenders and direct negotiations, while also approaching Indian and Taiwanese refiners with offers of November-loading cargoes . The sales push marks a reversal from earlier in the conflict, when Aramco was forced to cancel or defer deliveries to European and Asian buyers after the East-West Pipeline was knocked out by attacks in September.
The pricing concession is the clearest signal of the market's transformation. Aramco has set the November official selling price for Arab Light to Asia at a $5 per barrel discount to the average of Oman and Dubai crude benchmarks—the widest discount in six years . The discount is designed to achieve two objectives simultaneously: it compensates Asian buyers for the elevated freight and war-risk insurance costs associated with Gulf loadings, and it allows Aramco to compete against alternative suppliers that have gained market share during the disruption. The pricing strategy reflects a recognition that the physical market has loosened, and that buyers now have options that were not available at the height of the crisis.
The collapse of the Oman-Dubai spread provides the quantitative backdrop to Aramco's pricing decision. The spread, which measures the premium for crude loaded outside the Strait of Hormuz relative to crude loaded inside the Gulf, has fallen from nearly $34 per barrel in September to around $6 this week—a decline of more than 80% in a single month . The compression indicates that the market no longer prices a severe disruption to Gulf supply, as the restoration of the East-West Pipeline and the Yanbu export route has allowed Saudi Arabia to maintain exports through two separate corridors.
Vortexa data shows Saudi exports at approximately 6.5 million barrels per day in October, roughly flat versus September, with Red Sea flows at 2.5 million barrels per day and Gulf flows at 4.0 million barrels per day . The Red Sea route has become more important as the pipeline has been restored, while the Gulf route remains subject to intermittent attack risk. Tankertrackers.com estimates October exports at around 6.99 million barrels per day, close to pre-conflict levels, while Kpler estimates a lower figure of 5.4 million barrels per day . The discrepancy reflects the difficulty of tracking tankers that have switched off their AIS transponders to avoid attack risk, a practice that has become widespread in the Gulf.
For Indian refiners, Aramco's renewed sales push creates a favourable procurement environment after months of disruption. Indian refiners have been shifting toward delivered-basis purchases and reducing Gulf term contract exposure, as we have documented in earlier coverage. The availability of discounted November cargoes from Aramco, combined with the option to lift from either Yanbu or Gulf ports, gives Indian buyers leverage to negotiate better terms. The $5 per barrel discount to the Oman-Dubai average represents a meaningful reduction in feedstock cost, though the benefit is partially offset by elevated freight and insurance costs for Gulf loadings.
The broader Asian refining context explains why Aramco is courting buyers so aggressively. Chinese refiners have been the primary beneficiaries of the discounted Saudi crude, purchasing at least 12 million barrels for November delivery. Indian refiners, which have been actively diversifying their supply sources and reducing term contract exposure, are a secondary target. The competition for Asian market share is intensifying as Gulf producers seek to retain customers who were forced to seek alternative supply during the disruption. Aramco's discounts are a recognition that market share, once lost, is difficult to regain.
Aramco's production levels provide the supply-side context. The company has reported to OPEC that September production rose by a third to more than 8.3 million barrels per day, a wartime high . Domestic refineries typically consume around 3 million barrels per day, but the Jizan refinery remains offline due to Houthi attacks, freeing more crude for export. The combination of higher production and restored export infrastructure has created the conditions for Aramco's renewed sales push, and the discounts are the mechanism for clearing the additional volumes into a market that remains uncertain about future supply security.
Looking ahead, the sustainability of Aramco's discounted pricing will depend on the trajectory of the Oman-Dubai spread and the security of the two export corridors. If the Red Sea route remains functional and the Gulf route remains subject to intermittent disruption, the spread may stabilise at a level that reflects a persistent but manageable risk premium. If either corridor is compromised, the spread could widen again and Aramco's discounts could narrow. For Indian refiners, the current environment offers an opportunity to secure feedstock at more favourable terms than were available during the acute phase of the crisis, but the volatility of the past months argues against assuming that the relief will persist indefinitely.