BofA Data Shows Red Sea Container Transits Recover to 65% of Normal as Carriers Accelerate Returns

Bank of America's latest shipping and supply chain tracking report shows container shipping through the Red Sea has recovered to 65% of normal levels in the past two weeks, up from 50% in September, as carriers continue returning to the route with additional service restorations planned. Global port congestion has eased to 10% of the fleet from peaks of 11–12%, though Typhoon Champi disruptions and vessel bunching from Red Sea returns could push congestion higher in coming weeks. Long-haul container rates appear to have peaked, while tanker spot rates remain elevated at $650,000 per day on Oman–China routes.

<p class="ds-markdown-paragraph" style="margin: 16px 0px; color: rgb(15, 17, 21); font-family: quote-cjk-patch, Inter, system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Segoe UI", Roboto, Oxygen, Ubuntu, Cantarell, "Open Sans", "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; font-size: 16px;">Bank of America's latest shipping and supply chain data tracking report provides the most concrete evidence yet that the Red Sea container trade is recovering from the disruption that has reshaped global routing since early 2026. Container shipping through the Red Sea has recovered to 65% of normal levels in the past two weeks, up from 50% in September, as container liners continue returning to the route, with additional service returns currently being planned . The trajectory suggests that the carrier return wave documented by Alphaliner and the Suez Canal Authority is translating into measurable capacity restoration on the water.<a href="https://www.streetinsider.com/General+News/BofA+tracks+shipping+data+showing+Red+Sea+transit+recovery/27229865.html" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer" aria-label="2" style="color: rgb(57, 100, 254); transition: box-shadow 0.2s cubic-bezier(0.4, 0, 0.2, 1); border-color: rgba(255, 255, 255, 0); border-width: 2px 3px; margin-left: -3px; margin-right: -3px; text-decoration: none; position: relative;"></a><a href="https://finwire.io/news/stock-markets-news/bofa-tracks-shipping-data-showing-red-sea-transit-recovery" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer" aria-label="9" style="color: rgb(57, 100, 254); transition: box-shadow 0.2s cubic-bezier(0.4, 0, 0.2, 1); border-color: rgba(255, 255, 255, 0); border-width: 2px 3px; margin-left: -3px; margin-right: -3px; text-decoration: none; position: relative;"></a><p class="ds-markdown-paragraph" style="margin: 16px 0px; color: rgb(15, 17, 21); font-family: quote-cjk-patch, Inter, system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Segoe UI", Roboto, Oxygen, Ubuntu, Cantarell, "Open Sans", "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; font-size: 16px;">The recovery figure is significant because it quantifies what has until now been described in qualitative terms. Reports of carriers announcing Suez returns and SCA meetings with Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd have indicated direction, but the BofA data provides a percentage that allows the industry to gauge how far the return has progressed and how much remains. At 65%, the Red Sea route is functioning as a major artery again, but roughly one-third of normal capacity is still absent—a gap that continues to impose costs on shippers and carriers alike.<p class="ds-markdown-paragraph" style="margin: 16px 0px; color: rgb(15, 17, 21); font-family: quote-cjk-patch, Inter, system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Segoe UI", Roboto, Oxygen, Ubuntu, Cantarell, "Open Sans", "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; font-size: 16px;">Global port congestion has eased alongside the Red Sea recovery. Congestion has decreased to 10% of the fleet from peaks of 11–12%, driven by reduced congestion in North Asia . This is a meaningful improvement: port congestion absorbs vessel capacity and extends voyage times, so a reduction frees up tonnage for commercial deployment. However, BofA cautions that congestion could increase in the coming weeks due to Typhoon Champi disruptions and vessel bunching from Red Sea route returns, as carriers adjusting schedules create temporary surges at individual ports.<a href="https://www.streetinsider.com/General+News/BofA+tracks+shipping+data+showing+Red+Sea+transit+recovery/27229865.html" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer" aria-label="2" style="color: rgb(57, 100, 254); transition: box-shadow 0.2s cubic-bezier(0.4, 0, 0.2, 1); border-color: rgba(255, 255, 255, 0); border-width: 2px 3px; margin-left: -3px; margin-right: -3px; text-decoration: none; position: relative;"></a><p class="ds-markdown-paragraph" style="margin: 16px 0px; color: rgb(15, 17, 21); font-family: quote-cjk-patch, Inter, system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Segoe UI", Roboto, Oxygen, Ubuntu, Cantarell, "Open Sans", "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; font-size: 16px;">The container rate picture is less encouraging for carriers. Container rates on long-haul trades appear to have peaked, with Europe and transpacific quotes holding near Shanghai Containerized Freight Index levels due to solid off-peak demand and elevated congestion . The implication is that the rate increases engineered through capacity discipline and blank sailings may have run their course, and further gains would require either stronger demand or deeper capacity cuts. For shippers, this suggests that the recent period of rising spot rates may be stabilising rather than continuing indefinitely.<a href="https://www.streetinsider.com/General+News/BofA+tracks+shipping+data+showing+Red+Sea+transit+recovery/27229865.html" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer" aria-label="2" style="color: rgb(57, 100, 254); transition: box-shadow 0.2s cubic-bezier(0.4, 0, 0.2, 1); border-color: rgba(255, 255, 255, 0); border-width: 2px 3px; margin-left: -3px; margin-right: -3px; text-decoration: none; position: relative;"></a><p class="ds-markdown-paragraph" style="margin: 16px 0px; color: rgb(15, 17, 21); font-family: quote-cjk-patch, Inter, system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Segoe UI", Roboto, Oxygen, Ubuntu, Cantarell, "Open Sans", "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; font-size: 16px;">The tanker market presents a contrasting picture. Tanker spot rates have declined from recent peaks but remain elevated, with real Very Large Crude Carrier rates on Oman–China routes at $650,000 per day and US–China routes at $450,000 per day . Forward curves indicate 2027 average VLCC rates could hold around $200,000 per day. These figures confirm that the Hormuz disruption continues to support tanker earnings well above historical norms, even as the acute spike has moderated, and they provide a forward view that the market expects elevated rates to persist into next year.<a href="https://www.streetinsider.com/General+News/BofA+tracks+shipping+data+showing+Red+Sea+transit+recovery/27229865.html" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer" aria-label="2" style="color: rgb(57, 100, 254); transition: box-shadow 0.2s cubic-bezier(0.4, 0, 0.2, 1); border-color: rgba(255, 255, 255, 0); border-width: 2px 3px; margin-left: -3px; margin-right: -3px; text-decoration: none; position: relative;"></a><p class="ds-markdown-paragraph" style="margin: 16px 0px; color: rgb(15, 17, 21); font-family: quote-cjk-patch, Inter, system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Segoe UI", Roboto, Oxygen, Ubuntu, Cantarell, "Open Sans", "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; font-size: 16px;">Dry bulk rates are tracking 31% higher year-over-year in the fourth quarter of 2026, according to BofA. Panama Canal bulker transits are tracking 30% lower year-over-year despite improving water levels, and forward curves suggest average rates remaining 25% higher year-over-year through Q4 2026 and Q1 2027 . The dry bulk strength reflects a combination of grain demand, coal restocking, and vessel supply constraints, and it indicates that the freight market recovery is not confined to container shipping.<a href="https://www.streetinsider.com/General+News/BofA+tracks+shipping+data+showing+Red+Sea+transit+recovery/27229865.html" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer" aria-label="2" style="color: rgb(57, 100, 254); transition: box-shadow 0.2s cubic-bezier(0.4, 0, 0.2, 1); border-color: rgba(255, 255, 255, 0); border-width: 2px 3px; margin-left: -3px; margin-right: -3px; text-decoration: none; position: relative;"></a><p class="ds-markdown-paragraph" style="margin: 16px 0px; color: rgb(15, 17, 21); font-family: quote-cjk-patch, Inter, system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Segoe UI", Roboto, Oxygen, Ubuntu, Cantarell, "Open Sans", "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; font-size: 16px;">The car carrier segment provides a further data point on demand resilience. Car carrier demand grew 9.4% year-over-year in September 2026, with demand for the first nine months of 2026 tracking 10.4% higher year-over-year. Hoegh rates excluding fuel have rebounded to 4% higher year-over-year . This segment is less exposed to the Red Sea disruption but sensitive to global vehicle trade flows, and its continued growth suggests that underlying trade volumes remain supportive even as routing patterns shift.<a href="https://www.streetinsider.com/General+News/BofA+tracks+shipping+data+showing+Red+Sea+transit+recovery/27229865.html" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer" aria-label="2" style="color: rgb(57, 100, 254); transition: box-shadow 0.2s cubic-bezier(0.4, 0, 0.2, 1); border-color: rgba(255, 255, 255, 0); border-width: 2px 3px; margin-left: -3px; margin-right: -3px; text-decoration: none; position: relative;"></a><p class="ds-markdown-paragraph" style="margin: 16px 0px; color: rgb(15, 17, 21); font-family: quote-cjk-patch, Inter, system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Segoe UI", Roboto, Oxygen, Ubuntu, Cantarell, "Open Sans", "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; font-size: 16px;">For the shipping and logistics sector, BofA's data reinforces the picture of a market in transition rather than crisis. The Red Sea recovery, congestion easing, and rate plateauing on containers all point toward normalisation on the Asia–Europe corridor. But the elevated tanker and dry bulk rates, and the forward curves suggesting persistence into 2027, indicate that the Hormuz disruption continues to distort energy and commodity shipping. The two dynamics are not contradictory: the Red Sea and the Gulf are distinct corridors serving different trades, and the recovery of one does not resolve the disruption of the other. For Indian exporters and importers, the Red Sea recovery is welcome news for Europe-bound containerised cargo, but the elevated tanker and dry bulk rates that affect energy and commodity imports remain a cost pressure that the BofA data confirms is not going away soon.

BofA Data Shows Red Sea Container Transits Recover to 65% of Normal as Carriers Accelerate Returns

Haulage Times Daily Intelligence