<p class="ds-markdown-paragraph" style="margin: 16px 0px; color: rgb(15, 17, 21); font-family: quote-cjk-patch, Inter, system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Segoe UI&quot;, Roboto, Oxygen, Ubuntu, Cantarell, &quot;Open Sans&quot;, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, sans-serif; font-size: 16px;"><span class="">The United Nations' International Fund for Agricultural Development (IFAD) has warned that the shipping disruption around the Strait of Hormuz has moved beyond the transport and energy sectors and is now beginning to affect global agricultural harvests, marking a significant escalation in the economic reach of the Gulf security crisis. IFAD President Alvaro Lario said the knock-on effects of the initial Hormuz closure are now being felt in food production systems, with delayed fertiliser shipments and higher fuel and freight costs suppressing crop yields and pushing up food prices across vulnerable economies.</span></p><p class="ds-markdown-paragraph" style="margin: 16px 0px; color: rgb(15, 17, 21); font-family: quote-cjk-patch, Inter, system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Segoe UI&quot;, Roboto, Oxygen, Ubuntu, Cantarell, &quot;Open Sans&quot;, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, sans-serif; font-size: 16px;"><span class="">In an interview with Reuters, Lario said: "The knock-on effects of the initial Hormuz closure... are now beginning to be felt." He explained that the combination of Hormuz-related fertiliser disruption, higher fuel and transport costs, El Niño conditions, and Black Sea wheat supply disruption is driving up costs across the entire food supply chain, creating a compounding crisis that extends far beyond the immediate shipping lane.</span></p><p class="ds-markdown-paragraph" style="margin: 16px 0px; color: rgb(15, 17, 21); font-family: quote-cjk-patch, Inter, system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Segoe UI&quot;, Roboto, Oxygen, Ubuntu, Cantarell, &quot;Open Sans&quot;, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, sans-serif; font-size: 16px;"><span class="">The price impact is already measurable. Global agricultural commodity prices rose 13% in the third quarter of this year, and further increases are expected in the fourth quarter and into the first quarter of next year. The trajectory suggests that the food inflation triggered by the shipping crisis has not yet peaked and will continue to pressure consumers and governments well into 2027.</span></p><p class="ds-markdown-paragraph" style="margin: 16px 0px; color: rgb(15, 17, 21); font-family: quote-cjk-patch, Inter, system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Segoe UI&quot;, Roboto, Oxygen, Ubuntu, Cantarell, &quot;Open Sans&quot;, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, sans-serif; font-size: 16px;"><span class="">The transmission mechanism runs through farmer behaviour. Existing fertiliser and fuel stocks initially cushioned the shock, but sustained uncertainty has led farmers to cut fertiliser use and switch to shorter-cycle, faster-cash crops rather than higher-yield but longer-cycle varieties. This shift, while rational at the individual farm level, reduces aggregate output and reinforces the upward price pressure — a classic supply-side response to input cost volatility that is now playing out across multiple regions simultaneously.</span></p><p class="ds-markdown-paragraph" style="margin: 16px 0px; color: rgb(15, 17, 21); font-family: quote-cjk-patch, Inter, system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Segoe UI&quot;, Roboto, Oxygen, Ubuntu, Cantarell, &quot;Open Sans&quot;, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, sans-serif; font-size: 16px;"><span class="">The vulnerability is unevenly distributed. Countries dependent on imported fertiliser, fuel and food are most exposed. Lario singled out Southeast Asia, which is heavily dependent on imported fuel, and the Gulf region, which relies on imported food. These import-dependent economies face a dual squeeze: higher costs for agricultural inputs and higher costs for the food they cannot produce domestically, leaving limited fiscal room to absorb the shock.</span></p><p class="ds-markdown-paragraph" style="margin: 16px 0px; color: rgb(15, 17, 21); font-family: quote-cjk-patch, Inter, system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Segoe UI&quot;, Roboto, Oxygen, Ubuntu, Cantarell, &quot;Open Sans&quot;, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, sans-serif; font-size: 16px;"><span class="">The strategic importance of Hormuz to global agriculture cannot be overstated. Before the conflict, roughly one-third of the world's urea — the most widely used fertiliser — and nearly half of seaborne sulphur, a key fertiliser feedstock, transited the strait. The disruption of these flows does not merely raise prices; it threatens the planting schedules that determine next season's harvests, creating a risk of cascading shortages that could persist long after the security situation stabilises.</span></p><p class="ds-markdown-paragraph" style="margin: 16px 0px; color: rgb(15, 17, 21); font-family: quote-cjk-patch, Inter, system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Segoe UI&quot;, Roboto, Oxygen, Ubuntu, Cantarell, &quot;Open Sans&quot;, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, sans-serif; font-size: 16px;"><span class="">The UN has not been idle. A working group was established in March and has drafted a fertiliser transit mechanism, but it has not yet been activated. UN Under-Secretary-General Jorge Moreira da Silva said the mechanism could be activated within 7–10 days once a US–Iran agreement is reached. However, he cautioned: "A deal within the next few weeks is critical, otherwise we will miss the planting season." The window for intervention is narrowing, and the consequences of missing it would be measured in lost harvests and higher food prices for months to come.</span></p><p class="ds-markdown-paragraph" style="margin: 16px 0px; color: rgb(15, 17, 21); font-family: quote-cjk-patch, Inter, system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Segoe UI&quot;, Roboto, Oxygen, Ubuntu, Cantarell, &quot;Open Sans&quot;, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, sans-serif; font-size: 16px;"><span class="">The broader lesson is that maritime chokepoint disruptions do not stay contained within the shipping sector. What begins as a security incident in the Strait of Hormuz propagates through freight rates, fuel costs, fertiliser availability, farmer planting decisions, and ultimately food prices — a chain of transmission that reaches households far removed from the Gulf. For policymakers, the IFAD warning is a reminder that the Hormuz crisis is no longer just an energy or shipping story; it is a food security story, and the clock is ticking on the planting season.</span></p>