Indian Crude Oil Purchases Adapt Rapidly as Conflict Disrupts Shipping Lanes

As attacks on shipping in the Black Sea and Strait of Hormuz disrupt global oil flows, India demonstrated rapid sourcing flexibility in September, with Gulf crude imports surpassing Russian volumes for the first time since March. Saudi Arabian crude shipments to India rose 50–60% month-on-month, while Iraqi imports nearly tripled, according to Kpler data. Gulf crude imports to India jumped from 1.2 million barrels per day to 2.4 million bpd in September. India has diversified its supply sources from 27 to 41 countries, though the country still imports nearly 90% of its crude requirements.

<p class="ds-markdown-paragraph" style="margin: 16px 0px; color: rgb(15, 17, 21); font-family: quote-cjk-patch, Inter, system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Segoe UI", Roboto, Oxygen, Ubuntu, Cantarell, "Open Sans", "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; font-size: 16px;">India's crude oil procurement strategy is being tested in real time as escalating attacks on commercial shipping in the Black Sea and the Strait of Hormuz reshape global energy logistics. In September, as imports from Russia dipped, India pivoted sharply toward Gulf oil, with Saudi crude exports to India increasing by 50–60% over August, Iraqi imports nearly tripling, and Kuwaiti and Omani volumes also ramping up, according to Kpler figures reported by The Hindu . Gulf oil imports crossed Russian imports to India for the first time since March, with total Gulf crude flows to India rising from 1.2 million barrels per day to 2.4 million bpd .<a href="https://www.thehindu.com/business/as-conflicts-disrupt-shipping-indias-crude-purchases-show-how-fast-it-can-adapt/article71592461.ece" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer" aria-label="1" style="color: rgb(57, 100, 254); transition: box-shadow 0.2s cubic-bezier(0.4, 0, 0.2, 1); border-color: rgba(255, 255, 255, 0); border-width: 2px 3px; margin-left: -3px; margin-right: -3px; text-decoration: none; position: relative;"></a><p class="ds-markdown-paragraph" style="margin: 16px 0px; color: rgb(15, 17, 21); font-family: quote-cjk-patch, Inter, system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Segoe UI", Roboto, Oxygen, Ubuntu, Cantarell, "Open Sans", "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; font-size: 16px;">The shift reflects both opportunity and necessity. Gulf producers demonstrated remarkable resilience in restoring export capacity despite the volatile security environment. Crude exports from Gulf countries, which had plummeted when the war started and crawled up to some 60% in June–July, rebounded to 80% to 100% of pre-war levels by September . Saudi Arabia utilised its East-West pipeline to the Red Sea and, when that infrastructure was attacked, quickly redirected shipments from Ras Tanura on the Persian Gulf and through ship-to-ship transfers off Oman . Pankaj Srivastava, Senior Vice President at Rystad Energy, noted that flows across the Strait of Hormuz, the Red Sea through Bab el-Mandeb, the Suez Canal, and the land bypass to Fujairah helped Gulf exports "almost catch up to pre-war levels" .<a href="https://www.thehindu.com/business/as-conflicts-disrupt-shipping-indias-crude-purchases-show-how-fast-it-can-adapt/article71592461.ece" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer" aria-label="1" style="color: rgb(57, 100, 254); transition: box-shadow 0.2s cubic-bezier(0.4, 0, 0.2, 1); border-color: rgba(255, 255, 255, 0); border-width: 2px 3px; margin-left: -3px; margin-right: -3px; text-decoration: none; position: relative;"></a><p class="ds-markdown-paragraph" style="margin: 16px 0px; color: rgb(15, 17, 21); font-family: quote-cjk-patch, Inter, system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Segoe UI", Roboto, Oxygen, Ubuntu, Cantarell, "Open Sans", "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; font-size: 16px;">For India, this diversification is not a temporary tactic but an accelerating structural trend. Union Petroleum and Natural Gas Minister Hardeep Singh Puri said India has widened its crude oil supply sources from 27 countries to 41, with procurement decisions continuing to depend on availability and competitive pricing . "A disruption along a distant shipping route can alter the costs of an Indian factory and the budget of an Indian household," Puri said at the Pathways to Viksit Bharat Conclave, stressing the need for a more resilient energy supply system . Government figures show occasional purchases exceeding one million tonnes a month from countries as diverse as Brazil, Angola, Nigeria, Venezuela, and the United States .<a href="https://www.thehindu.com/business/as-conflicts-disrupt-shipping-indias-crude-purchases-show-how-fast-it-can-adapt/article71592461.ece" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer" aria-label="1" style="color: rgb(57, 100, 254); transition: box-shadow 0.2s cubic-bezier(0.4, 0, 0.2, 1); border-color: rgba(255, 255, 255, 0); border-width: 2px 3px; margin-left: -3px; margin-right: -3px; text-decoration: none; position: relative;"></a><a href="https://www.zeebiz.com/india/news-india-steps-up-oil-diversification-as-geopolitical-tensions-threaten-energy-supplies-404099" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer" aria-label="5" style="color: rgb(57, 100, 254); transition: box-shadow 0.2s cubic-bezier(0.4, 0, 0.2, 1); border-color: rgba(255, 255, 255, 0); border-width: 2px 3px; margin-left: -3px; margin-right: -3px; text-decoration: none; position: relative;"></a><p class="ds-markdown-paragraph" style="margin: 16px 0px; color: rgb(15, 17, 21); font-family: quote-cjk-patch, Inter, system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Segoe UI", Roboto, Oxygen, Ubuntu, Cantarell, "Open Sans", "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; font-size: 16px;">The Russian component of India's import basket remains significant but is under pressure from multiple directions. Russia's share in India's crude imports fell to around 44% in August from a historic high of 51% in July, according to official data . US President Donald Trump's decision to waive punitive tariffs on buyers of Russian oil has provided some relief, with India's Russian crude imports expected to remain at 1.8–1.9 million bpd in October, broadly unchanged from September's 1.82 million bpd . However, industry executives indicated that imports of discounted Russian crude had already fallen by a third since July, and the replacement barrels from the US, West Africa, South America, and traditional West Asian suppliers cost more due to higher freight and insurance .<a href="https://www.financialexpress.com/policy/economy/us-waiver-gives-india-room-to-retain-cheaper-russian-oil/4363816/" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer" aria-label="2" style="color: rgb(57, 100, 254); transition: box-shadow 0.2s cubic-bezier(0.4, 0, 0.2, 1); border-color: rgba(255, 255, 255, 0); border-width: 2px 3px; margin-left: -3px; margin-right: -3px; text-decoration: none; position: relative;"></a><a href="https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/deferred-100-us-tariffs-offer-only-temporary-relief-to-india-as-russian-oil-imports-fall-101792263783066-amp.html" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer" aria-label="7" style="color: rgb(57, 100, 254); transition: box-shadow 0.2s cubic-bezier(0.4, 0, 0.2, 1); border-color: rgba(255, 255, 255, 0); border-width: 2px 3px; margin-left: -3px; margin-right: -3px; text-decoration: none; position: relative;"></a><a href="https://www.thehindu.com/business/india-sourced-more-than-two-thirds-of-its-august-oil-imports-from-just-three-countries/article71587667.ece#1" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer" aria-label="13" style="color: rgb(57, 100, 254); transition: box-shadow 0.2s cubic-bezier(0.4, 0, 0.2, 1); border-color: rgba(255, 255, 255, 0); border-width: 2px 3px; margin-left: -3px; margin-right: -3px; text-decoration: none; position: relative;"></a><p class="ds-markdown-paragraph" style="margin: 16px 0px; color: rgb(15, 17, 21); font-family: quote-cjk-patch, Inter, system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Segoe UI", Roboto, Oxygen, Ubuntu, Cantarell, "Open Sans", "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; font-size: 16px;">The cost implications are stark. India's crude import bill rose 31.6% in September from August to $15.4 billion, even though volumes grew only 14.2%, according to Petroleum Planning and Analysis Cell data . The average price of the Indian crude basket jumped 28.71% from $90.19 a barrel in August to $116.09 per barrel in September . Over April–September 2026–27, the import bill rose 46.4% to $90.6 billion, a period that captured the surge in global oil prices after Hormuz shipping was disrupted .<a href="https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/deferred-100-us-tariffs-offer-only-temporary-relief-to-india-as-russian-oil-imports-fall-101792263783066-amp.html" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer" aria-label="7" style="color: rgb(57, 100, 254); transition: box-shadow 0.2s cubic-bezier(0.4, 0, 0.2, 1); border-color: rgba(255, 255, 255, 0); border-width: 2px 3px; margin-left: -3px; margin-right: -3px; text-decoration: none; position: relative;"></a><p class="ds-markdown-paragraph" style="margin: 16px 0px; color: rgb(15, 17, 21); font-family: quote-cjk-patch, Inter, system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Segoe UI", Roboto, Oxygen, Ubuntu, Cantarell, "Open Sans", "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; font-size: 16px;">Indian refiners are also adapting their shipping strategies to manage costs and risks. Indian Oil Corp., Reliance Industries, Bharat Petroleum Corp., and HPCL-Mittal Energy have begun hiring tankers to sail through the Strait of Hormuz and pick up crude on a free-on-board basis, shifting away from the previous practice of relying on Gulf producers and traders to handle shipping under cost-and-freight arrangements . The change was enabled by the Directorate General of Shipping's August advisory, which softened a blanket restriction on Indian crew transiting Hormuz to a requirement for seafarer consent . Iraq's state oil marketer SOMO has supported this shift by offering discounts of as much as $37 a barrel below regional benchmarks for October contracted supplies .<a href="https://www.ndtvprofit.com/world/strait-strategy-how-indian-refiners-are-braving-hormuz-risks-to-slash-crude-costs-12124873#pfrom=home-business_auto#1" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer" aria-label="6" style="color: rgb(57, 100, 254); transition: box-shadow 0.2s cubic-bezier(0.4, 0, 0.2, 1); border-color: rgba(255, 255, 255, 0); border-width: 2px 3px; margin-left: -3px; margin-right: -3px; text-decoration: none; position: relative;"></a><a href="https://energy.economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/oil-and-gas/india-oil-refiners-change-tactics-and-hire-ships-to-cross-hormuz/134610855?utm_source=category_widget&utm_medium=homepage#1" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer" aria-label="12" style="color: rgb(57, 100, 254); transition: box-shadow 0.2s cubic-bezier(0.4, 0, 0.2, 1); border-color: rgba(255, 255, 255, 0); border-width: 2px 3px; margin-left: -3px; margin-right: -3px; text-decoration: none; position: relative;"></a><p class="ds-markdown-paragraph" style="margin: 16px 0px; color: rgb(15, 17, 21); font-family: quote-cjk-patch, Inter, system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, "Segoe UI", Roboto, Oxygen, Ubuntu, Cantarell, "Open Sans", "Helvetica Neue", sans-serif; font-size: 16px;">Looking ahead, the sustainability of India's diversified sourcing strategy depends on both security conditions and price economics. Ship attacks intensified at the end of September and into October, becoming the most intense since the war started, with more than a dozen attacks reported and two ships sunk . Srivastava expressed confidence that Gulf crude exports would remain comparable to September through multiple channels, not necessarily the strait . Meanwhile, the US Energy Information Administration projects Brent easing to around $74 per barrel in 2027, though analysts caution that markets will now price Hormuz risk permanently into long-term valuations . For Indian refiners, the immediate priority is maintaining supply continuity at manageable cost, while the longer-term challenge remains reducing the structural vulnerability that comes with importing nearly 90% of the country's crude.

Indian Crude Oil Purchases Adapt Rapidly as Conflict Disrupts Shipping Lanes

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