Strait of Hormuz Commercial Transits Plunge 90% Below Pre-Conflict Averages

In gross tonnage terms, active transits through the narrow maritime chokepoint have plunged by more than 95% compared to historical operational levels. The sharp contraction follows a renewed escalation in regional hostilities, marked by five targeted vessel attacks within seven days—the highest weekly total recorded in two months.

LONDON / STRAIT OF HORMUZ — Commercial vessel traffic transiting through the Strait of Hormuz has collapsed to approximately 90% below pre-conflict baseline averages.<source-footnote ng-version="0.0.0-PLACEHOLDER" _nghost-ng-c2333486709="" style="line-height: 1.15 !important;"></source-footnote> According to the latest intelligence update published by Clarksons Research, daily merchant ship crossings through the vital Middle Eastern energy corridor averaged just 12 transits per day over the past week, down dramatically from a pre-conflict baseline of 125 daily transits.<source-footnote ng-version="0.0.0-PLACEHOLDER" _nghost-ng-c2333486709="" style="line-height: 1.15 !important;"></source-footnote><sources-carousel-inline ng-version="0.0.0-PLACEHOLDER" _nghost-ng-c1165537504="" style="line-height: 1.15 !important;"> <source-inline-chip _ngcontent-ng-c1165537504="" _nghost-ng-c642716104="" class="ng-star-inserted" style="line-height: 1.15 !important;"></source-inline-chip></sources-carousel-inline><h4 data-path-to-node="3" style="font-family: "Google Sans", sans-serif !important; line-height: 1.15 !important;">Collapse in Tonnage and Hydrocarbon Dispatches</h4>In gross tonnage terms, active transits through the narrow maritime chokepoint have plunged by more than 95% compared to historical operational levels.<source-footnote ng-version="0.0.0-PLACEHOLDER" _nghost-ng-c2333486709="" style="line-height: 1.15 !important;"></source-footnote> The sharp contraction follows a renewed escalation in regional hostilities, marked by five targeted vessel attacks within seven days—the highest weekly total recorded in two months.<source-footnote ng-version="0.0.0-PLACEHOLDER" _nghost-ng-c2333486709="" style="line-height: 1.15 !important;"></source-footnote><sources-carousel-inline ng-version="0.0.0-PLACEHOLDER" _nghost-ng-c1165537504="" style="line-height: 1.15 !important;"> <source-inline-chip _ngcontent-ng-c1165537504="" _nghost-ng-c642716104="" class="ng-star-inserted" style="line-height: 1.15 !important;"></source-inline-chip></sources-carousel-inline>The flow of liquid energy exiting the Arabian Gulf through the strait has experienced a severe drawdown:<source-footnote ng-version="0.0.0-PLACEHOLDER" _nghost-ng-c2333486709="" style="line-height: 1.15 !important;"></source-footnote><sources-carousel-inline ng-version="0.0.0-PLACEHOLDER" _nghost-ng-c1165537504="" style="line-height: 1.15 !important;"> <source-inline-chip _ngcontent-ng-c1165537504="" _nghost-ng-c642716104="" class="ng-star-inserted" style="line-height: 1.15 !important;"></source-inline-chip></sources-carousel-inline><ul data-path-to-node="6" style="padding-inline-start: 32px; font-family: "Google Sans Text", sans-serif !important; line-height: 1.15 !important;"><li style="line-height: 1.15 !important;">Crude Oil Outflows: Seaborne crude oil passing through Hormuz averaged 1.5 million barrels per day (bpd), down precipitously from 10 million bpd recorded during the first week of July and 15 million bpd prior to the onset of the conflict.<source-footnote ng-version="0.0.0-PLACEHOLDER" _nghost-ng-c2333486709="" style="line-height: 1.15 !important;"></source-footnote><sources-carousel-inline ng-version="0.0.0-PLACEHOLDER" _nghost-ng-c1165537504="" style="line-height: 1.15 !important;"> <source-inline-chip _ngcontent-ng-c1165537504="" _nghost-ng-c642716104="" class="ng-star-inserted" style="line-height: 1.15 !important;"></source-inline-chip></sources-carousel-inline></li><li style="line-height: 1.15 !important;">Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG): Zero mainstream Very Large Gas Carriers (VLGCs) have departed the Gulf over a ten-day period.<source-footnote ng-version="0.0.0-PLACEHOLDER" _nghost-ng-c2333486709="" style="line-height: 1.15 !important;"></source-footnote><sources-carousel-inline ng-version="0.0.0-PLACEHOLDER" _nghost-ng-c1165537504="" style="line-height: 1.15 !important;"> <source-inline-chip _ngcontent-ng-c1165537504="" _nghost-ng-c642716104="" class="ng-star-inserted" style="line-height: 1.15 !important;"></source-inline-chip></sources-carousel-inline></li><li style="line-height: 1.15 !important;">Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG): No laden Qatari LNG carriers have transited the strait in nearly two weeks, severely restricting long-haul gas shipments destined for European and Asian import terminals.<source-footnote ng-version="0.0.0-PLACEHOLDER" _nghost-ng-c2333486709="" style="line-height: 1.15 !important;"></source-footnote><sources-carousel-inline ng-version="0.0.0-PLACEHOLDER" _nghost-ng-c1165537504="" style="line-height: 1.15 !important;"> <source-inline-chip _ngcontent-ng-c1165537504="" _nghost-ng-c642716104="" class="ng-star-inserted" style="line-height: 1.15 !important;"></source-inline-chip></sources-carousel-inline></li></ul><h4 data-path-to-node="7" style="font-family: "Google Sans", sans-serif !important; line-height: 1.15 !important;">Rerouting Shifts and Harbor Congestion</h4>Vessel tracking logs indicate that defensive rerouting along the Omani coastal corridor has largely evaporated.<source-footnote ng-version="0.0.0-PLACEHOLDER" _nghost-ng-c2333486709="" style="line-height: 1.15 !important;"></source-footnote> Visible transits via Omani territorial waters accounted for only 2% of total passage over the five-day period, down from a 22% share earlier in July.<source-footnote ng-version="0.0.0-PLACEHOLDER" _nghost-ng-c2333486709="" style="line-height: 1.15 !important;"></source-footnote><sources-carousel-inline ng-version="0.0.0-PLACEHOLDER" _nghost-ng-c1165537504="" style="line-height: 1.15 !important;"> <source-inline-chip _ngcontent-ng-c1165537504="" _nghost-ng-c642716104="" class="ng-star-inserted" style="line-height: 1.15 !important;"></source-inline-chip></sources-carousel-inline>Uncertainty regarding safe transit windows has trapped vast numbers of vessels at anchorage. Approximately 385 commercial ships remain anchored off Fujairah and the Omani coastline, representing a 25% surge compared to early June levels.<source-footnote ng-version="0.0.0-PLACEHOLDER" _nghost-ng-c2333486709="" style="line-height: 1.15 !important;"></source-footnote> Furthermore, roughly 850 internationally trading vessels remain inside the Middle East Gulf basin, including 6% of the world’s Very Large Crude Carrier (VLCC) fleet, 3% of global product tanker capacity, and 3% of active LNG carriers.<source-footnote ng-version="0.0.0-PLACEHOLDER" _nghost-ng-c2333486709="" style="line-height: 1.15 !important;"></source-footnote><sources-carousel-inline ng-version="0.0.0-PLACEHOLDER" _nghost-ng-c1165537504="" style="line-height: 1.15 !important;"> <source-inline-chip _ngcontent-ng-c1165537504="" _nghost-ng-c642716104="" class="ng-star-inserted" style="line-height: 1.15 !important;"></source-inline-chip></sources-carousel-inline><h4 data-path-to-node="10" style="font-family: "Google Sans", sans-serif !important; line-height: 1.15 !important;">Freight Earnings and Market Surcharges</h4>The extreme reduction in available active tonnage, combined with lengthened alternative voyages around the Cape of Good Hope, has propelled spot charter rates upward across the tanker sector:<ul data-path-to-node="12" style="padding-inline-start: 32px; font-family: "Google Sans Text", sans-serif !important; line-height: 1.15 !important;"><li style="line-height: 1.15 !important;">VLCC Spot Earnings: VLCC rates climbed to $128,000 per day, reflecting a 32% increase since early June.<source-footnote ng-version="0.0.0-PLACEHOLDER" _nghost-ng-c2333486709="" style="line-height: 1.15 !important;"></source-footnote><sources-carousel-inline ng-version="0.0.0-PLACEHOLDER" _nghost-ng-c1165537504="" style="line-height: 1.15 !important;"> <source-inline-chip _ngcontent-ng-c1165537504="" _nghost-ng-c642716104="" class="ng-star-inserted" style="line-height: 1.15 !important;"></source-inline-chip></sources-carousel-inline></li><li style="line-height: 1.15 !important;">Suezmax & Aframax Rates: Mid-sized tanker earnings surged 63% and 68% over the same timeframe, reaching $148,000 per day and $109,000 per day, respectively.<source-footnote ng-version="0.0.0-PLACEHOLDER" _nghost-ng-c2333486709="" style="line-height: 1.15 !important;"></source-footnote><sources-carousel-inline ng-version="0.0.0-PLACEHOLDER" _nghost-ng-c1165537504="" style="line-height: 1.15 !important;"> <source-inline-chip _ngcontent-ng-c1165537504="" _nghost-ng-c642716104="" class="ng-star-inserted" style="line-height: 1.15 !important;"></source-inline-chip></sources-carousel-inline></li><li style="line-height: 1.15 !important;">Gas Carrier Markets: VLGC spot charter rates rebounded sharply to $145,000 per day, while LNG carrier spot rates remained locked at more than double their pre-conflict benchmarks.<source-footnote ng-version="0.0.0-PLACEHOLDER" _nghost-ng-c2333486709="" style="line-height: 1.15 !important;"></source-footnote><sources-carousel-inline ng-version="0.0.0-PLACEHOLDER" _nghost-ng-c1165537504="" style="line-height: 1.15 !important;"> <source-inline-chip _ngcontent-ng-c1165537504="" _nghost-ng-c642716104="" class="ng-star-inserted" style="line-height: 1.15 !important;"></source-inline-chip></sources-carousel-inline></li></ul>Industry analysts caution that despite sporadic stabilization attempts, the persistent risk of drone and missile strikes in the Southern Gulf corridor will prevent any rapid normalization of commercial traffic. As a result, global supply networks are bracing for prolonged lead-time inflation and elevated emergency war risk surcharges through the third quarter.

Strait of Hormuz Commercial Transits Plunge 90% Below Pre-Conflict Averages

Haulage Times Daily Intelligence